Similar how hard it is to accurately Consider side effectsConsider side effects
Here's an example of a side effect: Every place on earth has unsafe levels of plastic in the rainwater.
Seems bad. How do we do less of this?
When considering a change, especially a technolog... in practice, it's impossible to compensate for the impact of survivorship bias.
Even if you spent all your waking moments consuming stories of failure you'd still be exposed to a disproportionate number of anecdotes, data, and spurious reasoning about how the successful got where they are.
"Actively and aggressively discounting all success stories as meaningless noise" sounds extreme, but it's the best you can do. (And it's still not enough.)
- Don't let social media make you miserableDon't let social media make you miserable
Advice from a random NCBI paper¹:
Seek to maximize:
Seek to minimize:
- Assume your opinions have been shaped by forces outside your awarenessAssume your opinions have been shaped by forces outside your awareness
Because US businesses spend nearly $100B a year on advertising and PR, and We all justify our actions after the fact, often without realizing it.
- We all justify our actions after the fact, often without realizing itWe all justify our actions after the fact, often without realizing it
Post hoc rationalization is default mode for humans. It can happen so fast we don't have time to notice it.
Assume everyone's reasons for their past behavior are made-up stories. (Especially your ...